| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 地政學系 === 106 === After the SARS crisis in 2002 and deflation caused by the Asian financial crisis slowed down, housing prices of Taiwan kept growing until now except that 2008 financial crisis caused a short decrease of housing prices. Real estate is considered a locomotive that can lead overall economic growth, and researches have confirmed that rising prices should cause wealth effects, increase private consumption, and promote GDP growth. Therefore, economic should grow while housing prices of Taiwan rise. However, the rising ratio of housing price to income has become a hot issue in society, and even caused public grievances. In recent years, some researches have confirmed that rising prices maybe cause crowding-out effect which may reduce consumption and hobble economic growth.
Therefore, this research explores the wealth effect and crowding-out effect caused by rising housing prices. With the housing prices and private consumption in Taiwan as the research object, the vector self-regression model is used as an empirical method to explore the relationship between rising housing price and private consumption. The result show that wealth effect may higher than the crowding-out effect when the housing price rise initially, but it will cause large crowding-out effect resulting a decrease in private consumption when the increase it too high. However, due to the limitation of research data, different impacts caused by rising housing prices have not been analyzed about people with different income, whether they own their own houses, and the number the own.
According to the research results, when the housing price rise is too high, it may lead to economic recession. Therefore, the government should measure whether the growth of housing prices is appropriate, apply some policies to control rise of housing price and the ratio of housing price to income, and avoid excessive housing price increases leading to reduce private consumption which has a negative impact on the overall economic.
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