Research on the Influence of Shale Gas on the price of Petrochemical Products in Taiwan.

• Main Authors: TSENG ,YUNG-LUNG, 曾永龍
• Other Authors: LEE, JEN-YAO
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2018
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/5d2td6

碩士 === 國立高雄應用科技大學 === 國際企業系碩士在職專班 === 106 === This study is to analyze the impact of shale gas production output on the prices of West Texas Intermediate crude oil price (WTI), ethylene price (EP), and polyethylene price (PE).The following research methods have been applied: Vector Auto-regression(VAR),Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Johansen Co-integration Test, and Granger Causality Test. From the empirical results show that the long-run and short-term relationship among the shale gas production, crude oil price, ethylene price , and polyethylene price are summarized as follows: 1. Vector Error Correction Model(VECM) Test： SGP, WTI and EP have the phenomenon of co-integration, it is verified that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the three variables SGP, WTI and EP, But in the short-term that SGP will not impact on the EP, it appears that there is significant and positive correlation between SGP and EP. When SGP increases, it would drive a price rise in EP, WTI and EP have the phenomenon of co-integration, it is verified that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the two variable WTI and EP. The short-term price increase of WTI would drive a price rise in EP.