An Empirical Study on the Long-run Relationship between the Macroeconomic Variables and Life Insurance Demand -Comparative Study of Taiwan and Southeast Asian countries

• Main Authors: FANG, CHUN-YEN, 方俊彥
• Other Authors: LEE, CHENG-FENG
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2018
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/5zbp87

碩士 === 國立高雄應用科技大學 === 企業管理系碩士在職專班 === 106 === In recent years, the index of life insurance penetration in Taiwan has been constantly getting higher, even surpassing those developed countries such as America, U.K., France, Japan, etc. The domestic life insurance market indicates our insurance market has reached a saturation stage. Therefore, life insurance companies inevitably have to expand to other countries. With the implementation of our government’s “The New Southbound Policy,” this research discusses the long-term relationship between macroeconomic variables and life insurance demand in Taiwan and Southeast Asian countries based on the cointegration test of time series. This study hopes to shed some light for life insurance companies in expanding to Southeast Asian countries for references. The research data adopts Swiss Re-insurance Company annual data of life insurance penetration rate and life insurance density from 1980 to 2016 as well as the data of macroeconomic variables (GDP per capita, GNI per capita, inflation rate, savings rate, deposit rate, fertility rate, and average lifespan) from World Bank and International Monetary Fund to establish a complete research model. The empirical evidence shows that the selected variables have a unit root and exist a set of cointegration test vector, exhibiting all the variables have long-term relationships. Finally, with the help of the fully modified OLS, this study estimates the long-term relationship among the variables and test for what the most critical factor in these variables.Empirical rsults show that deposit rate has a significantly negative influence on the life insurance demand in Southeast Asian developing countries. GDP per capita and average lifespan also show a significant positive relationship to insurance demand. This indicates that the people’s life insurance demand will increase when a country’s economics has steadily been growing. As the whole world has gradually headed toward an aging society, the demand for life insurance will increase with the risk of longevity.