The Impact of New Southbound Policy on Tourist Hotel Stock Prices

• Main Author: 莊茹鈞
• Other Authors: HO, YUAN-HONG
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2018
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/ke3ds7

碩士 === 逢甲大學 === 財稅學系 === 106 === In recent years, the tourism industry has flourished and is a chimney-free industry. It can not only increase foreign exchange earnings, but also increase job opportunities. The more visitors there are and the longer the visitors stay, the higher the tourism revenue of tourist hotels will indirectly lead the stock prices of tourist hotels to grow. Compared time with the new southbound tourism policy and past. Due to the implementation of the new southbound policy, the number of tourists in Southeast Asia has increased. The purpose of this study was to explore the new southbound policy impact on the stock prices of tourist hotels, and to empirically analyze the variables of tourism and hotels. To realize if there was any impact on tourism hotel stock prices in the new tourism policy. Since the average number of overnight stays for foreign travelers started in 2008, the monthly data from the period from 2008 to 2017 in Taiwan is used. Finally, the new south boundary policy is used as a dummy variable. Based on the empirical results of the autoregressive distributional lag model and explain long-term and short-term between the stock price and the variables of the tourist hotel industry. By the bounds test of Pesaran (2001), we use it to find the long-term equilibrium relationship between the models. Because of the previous unit root test, the integration of the variables is not the same. In order to overcome this problem, we use ARDL method which could use different integration of the variables. The results of ARDL indicate that there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between the hotel stock price and model variables of Ambassador, Regent, and Royal chihpen doesn’t exist long-term relationship. The change in the stock price of the three hotels cannot be judged by the model variables, which implies the fluctuation of the stock price of the tourist hotel, which is not completely affected by the model variables. According to the empirical results of ARDL, it explains the correlation between the stock price and the variables of the tourism hotel industry. It is found that the new southward policy has a negative impact on the stock price of the tourist hotel but it is not significant. Because the implementation of the new southbound policy has just passed one year. It is not yet possible to know exactly what is going to change in the future.