| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中正大學 === 經濟系國際經濟學研究所 === 106 === Using the annual data with 187 trade partners from 1992 to 2015, we explore whether the increase in the inbound tourism helps Taiwan’s export. Recently, the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) approach is believed to be able to deal with the problem of zero trade value and heterogeneity, thus it is employed in this study to compare the empirical results with those obtained from the ordinary least squares (OLS) method, the fixed-effect model and the random-effect model that are commonly used in the traditional gravity model. Since the current inbound tourism may have the endogenous problem with other explanatory variables, we also consider replacing the current tourism flow by the one-year lagged tourism flow. Furthermore, we consider analyses for three different samples: the whole sample of 187 countries, the sample excluding the U.S. and the sample of 31 countries which have tourists visiting Taiwan. We found that the result from the sample excluding the U.S. is the most reasonable one. The empirical results show that PPML is more capable to solve the zero-trade problem and heterogeneity than other estimators. Finally, we conclude that the development of Taiwan's tourism industry has a positive impact on the export growth.
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