| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立雲林科技大學 === 財務金融系 === 105 === This thesis uses the event study approach to evaluate the difference of the real rate of return of a company and the return calculated by the market model, and uses the difference to analyze changes in average abnormal return and cumulative average abnormal return in five different industry stocks which are easily influenced by typhoons. The five types of industry stock which are selected from Taiwan’s stock market are cement industry stocks, food industry stocks, shipping stocks, sightseeing stocks, and trade department store stocks. The sample set of this research includes 19 events in which the Taipei City schools and businesses, along with the stock market, were shut down because of severe typhoons during the period of January, 2001 to September, 2016.
This research finds that (a) the abnormal returns of the cement industry stocks were significant and had positive remuneration at the first trading day; (b) the abnormal returns of shipping stocks were significant and slightly rose; (c) after disasters, the abnormal returns of food industry stocks did not show significant changes because the range of their fluctuations was small and reflected in few days; (d) the abnormal returns of sightseeing stocks and trade department store stocks had both positive and negative remunerations but their fluctuations were also small and not significant. Therefore, of these five types of industry stocks, significant increases of the abnormal returns were shown for cement industry stocks and shipping stocks, with the former showing the greatest significance. Abnormal returns of food industry stocks, sightseeing stocks, and trade department store stocks were not statistically significance. Consequently, this study suggests that stock investors can buy cement industry stocks before typhoons coming, and observe upward trends of cement industry stocks. On the other hand, stock investors can buy shipping stocks at the first trading day after typhoons leaving, and observe directions of trends.
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