| Summary: | 碩士 === 萬能科技大學 === 經營管理研究所 === 105 === The purpose of this study is to explore and forecast the number and amount of
Vietnamese oil import and export. We use many methods such as the naïve forecast, moving average method, exponential smoothing method, and simple regression analysis as a predictive tool to forecast the number and amount of Vietnamese oil import and export.
The real data manipulated in this study were obtained from the Ministry of Economic Affairs of Vietnam General Statistics Office. It includes the monthly number and amount of Vietnamese oil import and export in AD 2008 to AD 2016. We select the top countries for analysis the actual situation of Vietnamese oil import and export to major countries. (Top five countries export: Malaysia, Japan, Australia, Singapore, China), (Top six countries import: Taiwan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, China)
The results of this study reveal the exponential smoothing method have more forecast accuracy than the naïve forecast and moving average method respectively. Applying the linear regression analysis method for forecasting the amount of Vietnamese oil exports in January 2016 to December 2016 yields the forecasting ability is reasonable. Especially, the value of MAPE is just 0.34 to export to Australia.
In future research we provide the following suggestions:
1. The follow-up study can be different for Vietnam's import and export projects to predict different industrial products.
2. The follow-up study can use different prediction methods, such as seasonal factor addition mode, seasonal factor multiplication mode, time series method is not predicted, and the results compared with the various methods of this study, in order to find a better prediction method.
3. The follow-up study can be on the Vietnamese oil import and export to the country's unit price research and forecast for the import and export of oil traders reference.
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