| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北科技大學 === 經營管理系碩士班 === 105 === This study is to find out how the economic downturn affects the Mongolian banking industry through international use, and whether the use of pre-signal indicators gives signals (banking crises). This research uses two ways to determine the banking crisis in international experience: Event based method, Index based method. Based on the results of these two to find out the crisis period of the Mongolian banking industry, and whether the overall signal in the crisis period is a prediction signal. The results of the survey of the Mongolian economy in 1999-2001 and 2009-2010 total of 2 times the banking sector identified that occurred crisis. In addition, according to the study proposed from 2015 onwards the banking crisis characteristics. In the study, the total signal index was observed from August 2008 (8 months ago) to give the signal, and in March 2009 (1 month ago) stronger given the signal from 2009 to 2010 the banking crisis. The overall signal indicator gives a signal from March 2015 starting from June 2015 (over the first threshold), indicating that the Mongolian banking industry is starting a crisis. So in August 2016 (more than the second threshold) is clearly given the signal to remind the banking industry may be affected by the crisis.
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