Design Thinking from Paradigm Shift-To Predict ICT’s Product Life Cycle by Grey Prediction

• Main Authors: LEE,WEN-HUNG, 李文鴻
• Other Authors: KUO,PING-HONG
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2017
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/577m73

碩士 === 東海大學 === 工業設計學系碩士在職專班 === 105 === Owning to the rapid development of Information technologies with many generations of product updates and changes, plus the highly developed internet technology, drives electronic products made of new Information and communication technologies (ICT’s) much popular. The product life cycle depends on the user’s acceptance, market trends, competitive pressures and the influence of new technologies, etc. For the survival of high-tech electronic products in such an increasingly competitive environment, we must keep up with market trends at any time and predict the future trends to make the profitable decisions during “design thinking” of making products. By which shows the importance of forecasting the trends of the future of the industry. The industry data collected can be divided into primary data and secondary data. The acquiring of primary data would cost a lot of devoting of manpower and time to which not everyone can afford. By making good use of the convenience of network and the digital database to collect the secondary data published openly and then analyze and utilize it may bring great benefit to the industry. With the availability of the secondary data of ICT’s products shipments volume as Personal Computer (PC), Notebook PC (NB) and Smart Phone (SP), this research is expected to obtain the following results: 1. By means of "Grey Prediction" model”, it can calculate and establish trends forecasting of ICT’s product. 2. Exploring the "paradigm shift" of the motion path from the historical track of ICT’s development to reach the mastery of ICT’s-band elements. 3. From the “Paradigm shift "in-band elements, by means of the interpretation of" Interpretive structural modeling" (ISM) elements to plan out the band level as the basis for design thinking. Research results can help the industries to grasp the market trends, reduce risks, create the value of products and benefits of sustainable development of ICT’s-product (PC, NB, SP). It can also offer substantial help for the upstream and downstream industries of ICT’s-product (such as semiconductors, electronic components, PCB, etc.) at the same time.