| Summary: | 碩士 === 世新大學 === 財務金融學研究所(含碩專班) === 105 === This thesis makes use of monthly data including the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, the Shanghai A-Share index, Consumer Confidence Index(CCI), monetary supply, Consumer Price Index(CPI) and mortgage rate, from April in 2005 to September in 2016, and analyzes the relationship between macroeconomic variable and mortgage index in the first and second tier cities of Chinese mainland, multiple regression model being the research model, and further to make an analysis of the eliminable variables in macroeconomic variables by joint tests.
The empirical results indicate that: (1) the Consumer Price Index (CPI) change rate and mortgage rate have a significant impact on the house price change rate of Beijing, Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Chengdu, moving in the same direction with the house price index. (2) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) change rate has a significant impact on the house price index change rate of Chongqing, moving in the same direction with the house price. (3) The mortgage rate has a significant impact on the house price index change rate of Tianjin, moving in the same direction with the house price. (4) The monetary supply change rate has a significant impact on the house price index change rate of Wuhan, moving in the same direction with the house price. In addition, in the results of joint tests, the variables including the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, the Shanghai A-Share index, Consumer Confidence Index(CCI), monetary supply are eliminable at the same time. However, the empirical results of multiple regressions indicate that Consumer Price Index (CPI) change rate and mortgage rate are mostly significant. Therefore, for the housing market of Mainland China, the CPI and mortgage rate are crucial elements that affect the house price of the tire and tier 2 cities of Mainland China.
|
|---|
