The Empirical Studies on Economic Growth, Inflation and Employment Rate─Multivariate Threshold Models

• Main Authors: YE, RONG, 葉容
• Other Authors: Chiun-lin Huang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2017
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/ytfv58

碩士 === 東吳大學 === 經濟學系 === 105 === Economic growth, inflation, and employment rate are important variables for assessing the economic situation of a country. The paper is to explore the influence of the inflation target policy on the interaction among those important variables. The selected sample countries include the countries which adopt inflation target policy (UK, New Zealand, Canada) and countries which do not adopt inflation target policy (Germany, Hong Kong, Switzerland). The method adopted is applied to the multivariate threshold models of Tsay (1998). According to the empirical results, the countries which use inflation target policy have the following characteristics compared to those countries which do not use inflation target policy: 1.Economic variables (economic growth, inflation, employment rate) responded more quickly with a shorter number of lag length criteria. 2.The factors that affect the explanatory variables are parsimonious. 3.When the inflation rate is used as the dependent variable, the explanatory variables will be significant. And the forecast for the change in inflation is more effective.