| Summary: | 碩士 === 東吳大學 === 國際經營與貿易學系 === 105 === The establishment of financial holding company for financial industry in Taiwan enter into international market has considerable influence of globalization. Leading indicators for predicting the trend of the future trend of the times has a reference value. Whether it will affect the investors to choose timing ,it will be focus of this study.
This study selected leading indicators in the data to the Index of Export Orders, Monetary Aggregate M1B,TAIEX average closing price and Building Permits whether impact the stock price and Earnings Per Share of Fubon , Cathay and Chinatrust financial holding company. During the study period of January 1, 2003 to December 31, 2016, through the time series of Granger causality, Vector Autoregression model impact response function analysis and forecast error variance analysis, the empirical results are as follows:
1.Index of Export Orders will affect the stock share of Chinatrust , Fubon and
Cathay financial holding company in the short term, especially in Cathay
financial holding company. As Earnings Per Share, Index of Export Orders will
affect the Chinatrust financial holding company is obvious.
2.Monetary Aggregate M1B will affect the stock share of Fubon and Cathay
financial holding company in the short term, especially in Fubon financial
holding company. As Earnings Per Share, Monetary Aggregate M1B will affect the
Cathay financial holding company is obviously.
3.Building Permits will affect the all financial holding company is obvious of
Earnings Per Share.In the negative reaction is stronger, especially to
Chinatrust is stronger.
4.TAIEX average closing price is the sample for all the common shares traded
inculding financial holding company. It affect all financial holding company,
but it is not obvious.
|
|---|
