| Summary: | 碩士 === 東吳大學 === 政治學系 === 105 === This thesis examines the stability and change of the people’s attitude towards the issue of Unification/ Independence (UI issue) among Taiwanese people during the period between 2004 and 2016. By observing the cross-strait relationship and Taiwan domestic dynamic circumstances, this study explores how an individual’s affective identity and rational calculation influence his/her preference of the UI choice. Based on panel data conducted by “Taiwan Election and Democratization Study (TEDS)”, this study uses a hybrid model to analyze the same person’s attitude changes in two particular points in time. To be specific, this study adopts panel data during three different periods, i.e. between 2004 and 2008, between 2008 and 2012, and between 2012 and 2016. There are four findings in this study. First, individuals’ attitude toward Unification/ Independence is changing. From the micro-structural perspective, our outcome indicates that about 35% to 40% of people are very likely to change their attitude in the next survey. Note that the macro-structural analyses in the literature show that the people’s attitude toward the UI issue is, however, rather stable. Second, the attitude for people who choose to maintain the status quo appears to be the most stable regarding the UI issue. On the other hand, the attitude for people whose preferences are unification tend to be the most changeable. The empirical results show that respondents are significantly inclined to shift between status quo and unification or between status quo and independence, instead of the dramatic shift between the two extremes, i.e., unification and independence. In addition, the Unification/ Independence attitudinal change direction is systematically associated with the change of Taiwanese/Chinese identity and party identification. Finally, this study suggests that the influence of emotional factors has a greater impact on forming individuals’ preferences changeable of the cross-strait relations rather than the one of the rational factors.
|
|---|
