| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 生物環境系統工程學研究所 === 105 === Water is the most important natural resource, providing a wide range of fundamental functions –hydrological services-- to both humanity and ecological systems alike. Unfortunately, hydrological services have been strongly affected by climate change and land-use change. Therefore, it is crucial to quantify how the hydrological services have been affected by atmospheric change and land-use change. This study aims to quantify hydrological services by using two models – one is a traditional hydrologic model – SWAT model and another is a new ecosystem model – InVEST model. Our study area is Datuan river watershed, which is located in the northern part of Taiwan. First, we used IPCC fifth assessment report(AR5) scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 as components of the future precipitation regimes, and we use CLUE-s model to predict future land-use change. Then we use SWAT model and InVEST model to calculate the hydrological services, including water yield and sediment. Finally, we contrast SWAT model and InVEST model results.
The results show that water yield in both wet season and dry season will be extremely high in the near future. Moreover, the simulated results show that water yields derived from the InVEST model will be more significantly affected by climate change than those predicted by the SWAT model. Sediment retention will be less affected by climate change based on the results from the InVEST model. To sum up, by comparing results between two models, hydrological services analysis indicates that climate change will not only have a huge impact on overall hydrological services, particularly water yield, but also on the distribution of such services.
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