Appling Time Series Model to the Trade of Illegal Logs in China

• Main Authors: Yang-Yu Chen, 陳暘予
• Other Authors: Chyi-Rong Chiou
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2016
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/21111777389701122587

碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 森林環境暨資源學研究所 === 105 === In the late 1990s, the international community began to pay attention to illegal logging and associated trade of forest, illegal logging not only undermined the fairness and sustainable management of forests, also led to deforestation, social conflict and the government''s economic impact. China is the major consumer of timber and importing country, and thus may become illegal timber distribution center in recent years. Although China have made a lot of effort to combat illegal logging and trade, but there is rare improvement. First, this research analyzed the situation of timber imports in China from 1992 to 2014, finding that China imports grew up exponentially after 2000 so selecting the time from 2000 to 2014 as the main analysis time. Then, estimate China suspected of illegal timber imports, explore factors that affected China suspected of illegal timber imports, establish a time series model and forecast 2014 imports of the trend. Eventually, to prevent China from trading suspected of illegal timber, proposing some corresponding strategies and recommendations. The empirical results showed: 1, GDP from exporting countries increased by 1% and then the average amount of suspected illegal timber imports increased 5,591 cubic meters; forest coverage increased by 1%, the average amount of suspected illegal timeber imports increased 124,376 cubic meters; rural population ratio increased 1%, with an average of suspected illegal timber imports decreasing 159,866 cubic meters. 2, on average, affecting the amount of suspected illegal imports of areas, from the highest to the lowest, respectively, were Russian regions, Oceania, Africa, Southeast Asia and South America. 3, events from different years affected China''s suspected illegal timber imports vastly. In 2000, the event of independent imports in China happened, imports increased by an estimated 2,470,273 cubic meters; in 2004, tsunami in southeast Asia occured, it is estimated to reduce imports of 2,715,077 cubic meters; in 2008, the financial crisis occured, the estimated volume of imports fell 891,472 cubic meters; 2012, international event preventing countries from trading illegal timber occured, it is estimated to increased imports of 1,075,970 cubic meters. 4, 2014, the difference between forecast values and the actual amount of imports was up to 4 million cubic meters because Papua New Guinea, Russia, Mozambique and other countries traded illegal timber with China, and total amount of illegal timber trade were about 3.786 million cubic meters.