| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 國際企業學研究所 === 105 === This study investigates earnings forecasts for individual firms issued by security analysts on the U.S. election days, showing whether the industries the firms belonging to are sensitive to politics. The U.S. election results are typically announced at midnight, which serves to demonstrate analyst efforts and concerns over the difficulty in measuring the magnitude and direction of the impacts of Presidential and Senators/Congressmen elections on companies they follow. We use analysts’ working after hours as a proxy to interpret the extent of their perceived election’s effect as well as the time and efforts needed to measure the impacts of elections. We explore President and Senate/Congress elections separately to test if analysts issue more earnings forecasts revisions or not during the time interval immediately after the ballots are announced in the election years and especially when the election results appear to be surprising. Moreover, we partition the sample into politically sensitive industries and politically insensitive ones to investigate the difference between them when the election results surprise the general public. We find that both in Presidential election years and Senate/Congress election years, analysts issue more forecasts revisions than in the other years, but issue fewer revisions in the years when election results are surprising or close. Moreover, when the President elect announcement is unanticipated, analysts issue fewer revisions only for politically sensitive industries. However, when the senate ballots are close between the Republicans and the Democrats, analysts issue fewer ones for both.
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