| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 政治學研究所 === 105 === The Power Transition theory relies on the notions of “Power” and “Intentions” to analyze competition between the “Hegemonic Power” and the “Great Power” on the rise. The aim of the theory is to explain the peace and war issue resulting from such competition. The theory seems applicable to contemporary Sino-American relations.
However, practically neither “Power” nor “Intention” has clear cut indicators to engender any consensus between China watchers regarding China being a status quo or a revisionist power.
The theoretical perspective of Power Transition allows the audience to understand how China experts decide. In the current study, China experts of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) make the object of research. The publications of the CFR during the last two decades are read against their judgment on China’s “Power” and “Intentions” in order to explain their policy recommendations becoming confrontational or not.
The CFR is arguably the most influential private organization as regards the U.S. foreign policy making. This is probably because it is not a typical think tank. In fact, first and foremost as a long-time membership organization, its members include Wall Street plutocracies, owners or leaders of multinational cooperation, and the professional class, like scholars or professors. As a result, the CFR and its China Reports echoes the U.S. decision-making circle,. This is why the “China Image” presented in its reports informs how most likely the U.S. government considers China.
Through the content analysis of the CFR China Reports from 1995-2017, China’s “Power” and “Intentions” in the American perceptions can be acquired. The evolution of this image connects analysis of practitioners’ view to theories of International Relations. It enables a better understanding of the U.S. China Policy and the Sino-American Relations.
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