Testing Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis in G7 and ASEAN Countries

• Main Authors: Chen, Ian-Ju, 陳彥竹
• Other Authors: Jan, Man-Ser
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2017
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/y76efe

碩士 === 國立臺灣海洋大學 === 應用經濟研究所 === 105 === This study was testing the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis of the G7 and ASEAN countries. According to the literature, when economic growth up to the relative high point, the environmental disruption will decline to the relatively low point. This research was to verify the literature result, testing the different level of the economic development organizations. In order to find out the consequence through the study. Based on the World Bank and the Statistical Review of World energy, this study collected 15 countries and 15 variables from 1975 to 2015 and 15 observers to find out the presence or absence of the environment in different economies. This research separate the data into two groups. Due to the variable definition, our study setting group one as trade group, and group two as energy group. In order to test the EKC hypothesis and find out the variables effect through the different economic development. This study used ARDL bound test to verify the unit countries EKC hypothesis through the different groups, and also used VECM to verify the panel data short term variable casusl effect and long term EKC hypothesis. Due to the result, different economic development didn’t the main reason to effect the EKC hypothesis. Base on single countries result of the G7 and ASEAN, the EKC hypothesis was existed. When the economic growth to a certain extent, the environmental disruption will decline to the relative low point. Otherwise, the results of this study were used to find out the structural change years and the relationship between the variables in the individual countries. Also to find out the casual relationship between the panel data variables in order to confirm the existence of the interaction between variables. In the estimates of a single country, both G7 and ASEAN had signs of existence in the long-term EKC. Such as：USA, UK, EU, Italy, France, Germany, Russian, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. All of them had enough evidence to prove when the economic growth could inhibit the CO2 emission. According to the group one result, merchandise exports could inhibit the CO2 emission. The group two result also verify oil price could inhibit the CO2 emission. Nevertheless, oil consumption had the positive effect on CO2 emission. Due to the study of the result we separated the data not only in the single countries also as the panel data of the G7 and ASEAN data according to their economic development. In the result of the group one study, trade variables had more than 50% of the countries their EKC hypothesis was existence. In the end, the research chose the group one variables into the later on panel study. According to the empirical result, we could find out that ASEAN and the panel data of all countries their EKC was existence in the long term. And also discover that when GDP growth up to the relative high point, the environmental disruption will decline to the relatively low point. However the empirical result of G7 countries was not have the same consequence as the study anticipation at first. In the short term of the Granger casual relationship test. G7countries empirical result declared that the real GDP and the square of the real GDP had the two-way casual relationship. Merchandise imports and exports had the two-way casual relationship. The real GDP and the square of the real GDP had the one way casual relationship to the energy-use of the oil and renewable energy consumption. Merchandise imports /exports, energy use of oil and square and the real GDP had the one-way casual relationship to the CO2 emission. Merchandise imports /exports had the one-way casual relationship to the real GDP, the square of the real GDP and energy use of oil. Renewable energy consumption had the one-way casual relationship to the merchandise imports /exports. The empirical result of ASEAN countries that the real GDP and the square of the real GDP had the two-way casual relationship. The real GDP and the CO2 emission had the two-way casual relationship. Merchandise imports /exports, the real GDP, the square of the real GDP and energy use of oil had the two-way casual relationship. The CO2 emission had the one-way casual relationship to the energy use of oil and merchandise imports /exports. Renewable energy consumption had the one-way casual relationship to the CO2 emission and energy use of oil. The energy use of oil had the one-way casual relationship to the real GDP. The empirical result of the panel data of the all countries. The real GDP had the two-way casual relationship to all of the variables except the CO2 emission. The square of the real GDP had the two-way casual relationship to all of the variables except the CO2 emission and merchandise exports. Merchandise imports and exports had the two-way casual relationship. The CO2 emission had the one-way casual relationship to all of the variables except the renewable energy consumption and merchandise exports. According to all of the empirical results, in the single countries consequence, the G7 countries had more evidence to prove the EKC is existence. However in the panel data research the G7 countries didn’t exist this hypothesis. Obviously, to decline the CO2 emission. Not only focus on the economic development different also improve the renewable energy consumption and merchandise exports is the most important things of all.