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• Main Authors: Fu-Kai Tsao, 曹富凱
• Other Authors: 許秉瑜
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2017
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/3dmq4p

碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 會計研究所 === 105 === In the global economical environment the semiconductor industry competition is increasingly fierce, production and delivery cycle is extremely important competitiveness and management indicators. As the consumer electronics products are light, thin, small, high performance and short life cycle characteristics, the process is increasingly complex, with the Moore's Law may fail, semiconductor equipment, materials and processes continue to be refined to ensure that the company can meet customer's Solutions, product customization, high yield, and on time delivery. The main purpose of investors to buy stocks is to obtain capital gains, it must be concerned about the factors that affect the stock price changes. In recent years, foreign investment to improve proportion of foreign capital in the semiconductor industry in Taiwan, the information has been able to foreign investors and investors to classify the interpretation of the research data is easy to be interpreted and analyzed. This article research into the effect of WIP and SHIP on the forecast of stock price for semiconductor foundry packaging and testing industry. This Article use the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Explanatory Variable model to introduce the explanatory variables with high degree of correlation with the variables, which can improve the prediction effect of the model. The data range is based on the monthly average price data of January 2016 to March 2017, and the forecast of stock price is introduced WIP and SHIP amount through the ARIMAX model. The best model for forecasting stock price is the ARIMAX model established for the first six periods. The MAPE of the stock price forecast is 5.37% and the forecast of stock price is effective. Providing investors with more accurate forecasting of stock prices as a reference for investment decisions.