| Summary: | 博士 === 國立交通大學 === 科技管理研究所 === 105 === In order to achieve the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, many countries are increasingly emphasizing the introduction of innovative technologies into energy systems, which need to build an environment-friendly consumption and production system. The most important key factor is that consumers are willing and affordable to join the green consumer behavior. However, climate change is a long-term issue, carbon reduction targets and technology diffusion can not be achieved overnight, which need long-term evolution. The cost of a radical technological change is very high at the beginning of the introduction, and if there are no other niche conditions, it is often a long time to wait for the autonomic evolution of the technology, which will encounter many obstacles of market diffusion. When the existing technology or product is replaced, the technology lock-in effect would occur. For avoiding the existing technology is locked to impact the new technology market diffusion opportunities, government policy needs to push new technology investment early.
When the severe carbon reduction target, coupled with government policy incentives, can induce the formation of niche markets for emerging technologies, and encourage manufacturers to invest in emerging technologies. The double effect of government policies, which included technical learning effect and market diffusion effect, makes it possible for high-cost emerging energy technologies to become attractive and economic in the future. As a result, the future changes of the margin cost (MAC) between various emerging energy technologies will affect the portfolio of emerging energy technologies and the priority of government budget execution. In recent years, more and more emerging transport technologies, such as hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, pure electric vehicles, hydrogen vehicles, gradually heading for commercialization, providing huge energy saving and carbon dioxide reduction in the transport sector. Therefore, significant diffusion effects of emerging technologies in the transport sector, which included technology-push and demand-pull, will have a dramatic impact on long-term greenhouse gas reduction costs and strategic portfolio options.
In this study, the "government policy" was the main study core, connecting with three issues, which are the "electric vehicle market spread", "carbon benefit assessment" and "MAC assessment method", to construct the causal relationship. The aim and contribution of this research are as follows: (1) Constructing the market diffusion model by the view of consumer investment decision-making, to appraise the dynamic adjustment mechanism of government green reward policy for the equitable distribution of resources. (2) To explore the important factors influencing the diffusion of new technologies in the transport sector and to assess the impact of different market diffusion scenarios on the contribution of carbon reduction targets. (3) Clarifying the purpose of usage and applicability of information while analyze climate change issues by various MAC method, and reducing the bias of decision-making information.
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