Using Bayesian Belief Network to Perform Strategic Analysis and Stochastic Simulation for Taiwanese Computer Industry

• Main Authors: TENG,Yu-Ting, 鄧宇廷
• Other Authors: 王志軒
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2017
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/5q9c43

碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 工業工程與管理系所 === 105 === Now, the global computer industry is facing many opportunities and challenges, such as the reduced demand of PC computers, country’s proposed policies, customized products and so on. Due to the computer industry manufacturers develop different way in their products and services, this study divided computer industry into computer brands, industrial computers and computer foundry of three sub-industries. Taiwan has well-developed and representative company, so we use Taiwan's manufacturers for the sample analysis. First, the study use CART (classification and regression tree) method to find out the important variables of the three sub-industries. Next, the study analyze the differences between the three sub-industry value chains. Third, the study use the bayesian belief network to quantify the strength between the variables. Finally, the study use the simulation to explain the independent variable impact on the dependent variable, so that business operators can clearly know what will happen on corporate profits when he made the decision.