Estimating the Health Effects of PM2.5 in China: A Panel Threshold Model Approach

• Main Authors: Bao–Linh Tran, 陳寶玲
• Other Authors: Chi-Chung Chen
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2017
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/17195613186698802222

碩士 === 國立中興大學 === 國際農學碩士學位學程 === 105 === This study elucidates the health impacts from fossil fuel consumption based on multiple threshold effect of PM_2.5 in China, using panel data of 30 provinces in the period time 2004-2010. We conduct this by first estimating the causal relationship of coal consumption and PM_2.5. The result shows that a 1% coal consumption increase induces a 0.23% increase in population-weighted exposure to PM_2.5. We continue with developing a statistical relationship between PM_2.5 and cause-specific mortality which indicates that the health effects are dependent on the PM_2.5 range with triple threshold effect. For example, we find that increasing PM_2.5 causes mortality to increase when population-weighted PM_2.5 exposure is lower than 26.2 μg/m^3, between 26.2 and 34.27 μg/m^3, between 34.27 and 44.76 μg/m^3 and higher 44.76 μg/m^3, with the estimated increase in heart disease mortality being 0.25%, 0.42%, 0.53% and 0.40% when the population-weighted PM_2.5 exposure increases by 1%. In terms of respiratory diseases, the mortality increases by 0.38%, 0.97%, 0.57% and 0.39%, corresponded to 1% increase in population-weighted PM_2.5 exposure when PM_2.5 exposure is lower than 37.95 μg/m^3, between 37.95 and 38.06 μg/m^3, between 38.06 and 48.53 μg/m^3 or higher 48.53 μg/m^3, respectively. By combining these two steps, we find that the mortality in term of heart disease (or respiratory disease) will increase by 0.12% (or 0.19%) when the coal consumption increases by 1%, under the ranges of PM_2.5 exposure which is higher than 34.27 μg/m^3 (or 37.95 μg/m^3). Moreover, we also found significant relation between other air pollutants and public health, such as a 1% increase in NO_2 lead to 0.31% and 0.33% increase in heart disease mortality and respiratory, respectively; and a 1% SO_2 increase causes mortality of heart disease and respiratory disease increase by 0.10% and 0.42%, respectively. The findings of the study provide a better understanding of sources contributing to related-air pollution mortality and could be considered for further applications in setting emission standards. In addition, we found that PM_2.5 in the period time 2009-2010 is lower than previous period about 14.5% owing to China’s efforts to provide better air quality for 2008 Olympic Games. This study also found that meteorological conditions including temperature and humidity are positively correlated with PM_2.5 while precipitation and PM_2.5 has a negative correlation.