Ice-cream Effect and Investors Behavior

• Main Authors: Yu-Fen Chang, 張羽汾
• Other Authors: 林盈課
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2017
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/14661921180651363671

碩士 === 國立中興大學 === 財務金融學系所 === 105 === Monthly revenue will fluctuate with seasonal cycles; this is called low and peak season. Normally stock price and revenues are in direct proportion. As a result, investors and market analysts will pay attention to monthly revenue. When the performance of monthly revenue is outstanding, the stock price will rise, therefore attracts the attention of institutional and individual investors. The purpose of this study is to apply the growth rate of monthly revenue to exam-ine the value of information about monthly revenue under the seasonal cycles and uses the information to construct trading strategies. Furthermore, we discuss investors trading behavior and psychological bias on the results. The results reveal that investors should buy positions ahead of monthly revenue announced of seasonal operating cycle compa-nies. In addition, if the growth rate of monthly revenue is beyond expectation, we should buy and hold the position for fifteen days after revenue announcement. The performance of trading portfolio performs better than the market portfolio. The final result shows that the individual investors will follow past experiences and representativeness as rule of thumb as the face peak seasonal companies, but the phenomenon will cause cognitive bias and irrational behavior on the investment. The individual investors tend to exhibit over confidence and strongly disposition effect when they make investment decisions.