The Study of Seasonal and Unpredictable Demand for Dice Games

• Main Authors: HO, CHIH-HSIANG, 何智翔
• Other Authors: CHANG, SHENG-HUNG
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2017
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/55h9mx

碩士 === 明新科技大學 === 管理研究所碩士班 === 105 === There were two different production management concepts in production system, one was Balance Capacity, and another was Balance Flow concept of Theory of Constraints (TOC). In order to prove the difference between these two production processes, the model of dice game was used by TOC to explain. Alex. Knight, the student of Dr. Goldratt, had designed dice game of six different game rules to let learners be able to use learning type game to realize different production method and apply it in the production system for explaining the method of production process, therefore, as compared to balance capacity, the use of balance flow was correct concept. Therefore, the first to third types of dice games used balance capacity concept, and fourth to sixth dice games used the concept of balance flow, after the most original method was improved, it let the learners understand that in the production system of balance capacity, due to the existence of resource interdependency and uncertainty factor in the production line, no matter how the effective production value of the production system was improved, the production system usually cannot reach our expected production goal, however, the improved balance flow system not only can reduce the inventory effectively, but also was very close to the target production value. Seasonal and sudden demand were commonly seen demand forms, but dice game did not have such concern, therefore, in this study, the dice game was added with seasonal and sudden demand to see if TOC concept can still handle such uncertain factor. In the game concept, the number coming out from the original dice model was added with seasonal and sudden demand model, then through internal algorithm and simulation, massive data was acquired, which was used to summarize the result of each game for further comparison and discussion.