A Study of Uncertainty Analysis Based on the Conformist Behavior in MRT Underground Space

• Main Authors: Kun-Che Pai, 白坤哲
• Other Authors: 林正平
• Language: zh-TW
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/mym9jy

碩士 === 國立臺北科技大學 === 土木與防災研究所 === 104 === Herd behavior is a psychological response that can occur in people seeking refuge in the event of a fire. Specifically, when people experience a fire hazard, they feel stress, anxiety, and panic, and their behavior can be influenced by other people, causing them to lose their ability to manage their behavior in the event of a crisis, thereby resulting in herd behavior. Previous escape response studies have indicated that herd behavior during a fire is the result of irrational judgment, and it can lead to injury and death. However, to date, few quantitative studies have been conducted to investigate such behavior. Therefore, the present study investigated Zhongxiao Xinsheng Station, a mass rapid transit station on the Xinlu line in Taipei. First, PyroSim software was employed to analyze the smoke layer descent. The amount of time for the smoke layer descent to build up to dangerous levels was used as an escape constraint. Finally, a Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to simulate a fire at this station. People exhibiting herd behavior were incorporated into the fire model as either followers, leaders, or people who decides at random. A fire disaster at the station was simulated using an optimized model. In addition, transport theory and a decision matrix were employed to calculate the expected return time to assist decision makers performing a risk analysis.