| Summary: | 碩士 === 世新大學 === 財務金融學研究所(含碩專班) === 104 === The objective of this study is to analyze the relationship between consumer confidence index(CCI) and real estate cycle indicator. This paper select from the third quarter of 2002 to the fourth quarter of 2014,a total of 200 data. The indicators of real estate cycles indicator adopted in this thesis are real estate trends score, the housing-price to income ratio, mortgage loan burden and Cathay national may deal price index. It was also through those empirical measurement methods, which are Unit Root Test, Causality Test, VAR Analysis Model, Impulse Response Analysis and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition . The empirical results of this study showed that there is a two-way feedback among CCI and real estate trends score and CCI influence he housing-price to income ratio and Cathay national may deal price index. Impulse Response Analysis indicates the CCI has the largest impact on its own, and real estate trends score and mortgage loan burden are secondary. And due to the impact of CCI, the real estate trends score is most significant. Based on Forecast Variance Decomposition reveals that CCI is more accountable for itself, and the real estate trends score take second place.
It is concluded that CCI has considerable influence on real estate industry indicator .Investors, speculators, resident buyer, or the banks to control risk. could be on the basis of CCI index.
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