| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣海洋大學 === 商船學系 === 104 === The development of world trade and economics made the traffic density near the regions of coastal and harbor increasing. And further, ship large-sized trend makes navigation safety issues become relatively complex. Which therefore, large-size ships navigating in/outbound harbor is an important and challenging issues. In recent years, progress in computer technology, developing low cost and high efficiency methods of ship manoeuvering simulation to study and assess the navigation risk of large ships in busy water area, narrow waterway or large ships inbound is an important and challenging issues.
In this research, we used the data of real-time simulation of LNG vessel arrival Taichung harbour to 1)developing the probability distribution model of ship position, course, and speed, firstly, and then implemented the risk assessment of inbound ships near the entrance.
Furthermore, it also have accomplished: 2) the distribution of wheel-over point positions , the time-interval of helm-orders distribution in direct and curved route, and transferred into the human operation elements, then installed into the Probability Fast-time Simulation, in order to develop the Probability Fast-time Simulation system that conform to actually happening.
According to the paper conclusion, the main factor of inbound risk is the influence of climate condition, wind and current. The key point of controlling risk situation is the mutual relations, ship velocity and rudder effect. These results are not only supply the entering pre-information to navigators, but keep on applying to others, finished the full data bank each harbour in Taiwan that be able to used.
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