| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中山大學 === 海洋環境及工程學系研究所 === 104 === Although the Chiku coastal region is the largest aquaculture area in Taiwan, it is also characterized by its dynamic agriculture and tourism sectors. Land uses in this area include: a lagoon, wetlands, aquaculture ponds, salt evaporation ponds, agriculture lands, buildings and green spaces. Over time local people have developed a unique way of integrating coastal development with conservation of the lagoon ecosystem.
Recently research efforts have started to focus on Chiku’s carbon absorption capacity and the interactions between the aquaculture industry and the lagoon. However, these studies mostly consist of static assessments of specific land uses or industries and do not present an integrated view of the dynamics that operate in the area. Exploring land-use dynamics in Chiku would offer a chance to integrate these recent studies into a more comprehensive framework, able to better estimate the actual carbon balance. We propose to use the System Dynamics method to build a simulation model of land use change in the Chiku area. The model features human activities in the area (aquaculture, agriculture, tourism, etc.), mimic their synchronous developments in the long term and thus, provide a solid basis for the estimation of the carbon balance of the coastal area as a whole. Finally, by combining Montecarlo simulation and decision tree analysis, the simulation model is used to serve as a platform for the design and testing of policies that may sustainably enhance Chiku’s carbon absorption capacity, while still supporting the local economy and the local environment.
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