| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 產業經濟研究所 === 104 === The serious problem of low birth rate occurred in Taiwan recently. All fields of people actively seek the solution, and the government developed a series of welfare and subsidy policy. The government expects to extenuate the situation of low birth rate, but the effect of policy is very limited. This paper looks forward to give the people and the government a more clearly raising cost of children by using a further economic analysis.
First, we use the Data of household income and expenditure survey, and the observations is divided in to four categories which are childless couples family, a son of the nuclear family, two sons and three sons of nuclear family. Then, we will explored in each kinds of family spend their lifestyles and spending proportion.
In the research method, we pick the independent variable which can representative the family household characteristics, and we use the OLS regression to find the regression coefficients. Then, we use Breusch-Pagan test of independence and discovery the residual of regression are not independent of each other. Therefore, we decide Seemingly unrelated regressing model as a new estimation model. By control the family characteristic variable, we obtain the predicted values of all observation. After we average all the predicted values, we can do the variance analysis.
The result implies that (1) When the family have children will make parents reduce their private property expenses, it means the sacrifice of parent. (2) Income is the most important variables to affect all categories of expenditure. (3)The expenditure of Food and Education will increase in fixed scale by the number of children. (4) The expenditure of Clothe, House, Health and Leisure will have a jump by the family with children or not. (5) Finally, we find the marginal cost of raising a child from one to three which are 180000, 120000 and 8000, with economic of scale.
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