| Summary: | 博士 === 國立交通大學 === 經營管理研究所 === 104 === Transition of technological systems is a complex phenomena that includes many aspects and has been studied extensively before. This dissertation focus lies in two particular aspects that still lack attention from scholars: (i) the qualitative assessment of knowledge base for emerging technology; (ii) the role of incumbents and new entrants’ strategic behavior on the pace of new technology development. Introducing renewable energy is even more challenging than other technologies since it requires strong government support. In this dissertation we show the importance of policy fit on different stages of technology introduction, namely formation of (i) knowledge base and (ii) market, for sustainable market development. For the illustrative purpose we chose biofuel technology introduction as part of renewable energy technology transition.
In the world’s race towards sustainability renewable energies became part of the solution for lowering carbon emissions and increasing energy efficiency. The biofuel technology was one of the oldest among renewable energy choices. Our knowledge base assessment sheds the light on the existing biofuel knowledge base. We propose exploration-exploitation index that shows the type of learning in the knowledge base and show how it changes with time. Additionally we propose assessment based on four indicators from patent citation network (size, growth, cumulativeness, and interdependence), that together with exploration-exploitation index completes our knowledge base assessment. We chose Russian biofuel technology for the illustration based on the reason that despite being one of most prominent renewable technologies in Russia, it is still struggling in the presence of very strong incumbent players. We compared it to biofuel technology development of Germany, one of successful leaders in adopting renewable energy, and China, an aggressive latecomer at promoting renewable energy. The results show that Russia’s biofuel knowledge base lacks both the increasing technological specialization of that in Germany and the accelerated growth rate of that in China. Russian biofuel knowledge base shows a big dependence on foreign applicants’ activity. Unlike in Germany or China large domestic incumbents seems not to be interested in exploring biofuels.
Although sufficient knowledge base is vital for new technology development, the ultimate goal for any new technology is successful market diffusion. While it is widely acknowledged that government policy play important if not decisive role for renewable technology introduction to market, the evidence show that often policy fail to shape the sustainable industry that can survive without substantial government support in the future. We propose that cooperative and competitive behavior between incumbents and new entrants in the industry hold a key to successful technology introduction. We illustrate this proposition on Russian biofuel technology development compared to Germany, France and United Kingdom. The results show that simultaneous engagement of incumbents and new entrants in competition and cooperation helps to build a sustainable market for renewable energy.
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