| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 運輸與物流管理學系 === 104 === In the trend of global trades and economic liberalization, frequencies of trades between countries have increased. Maritime transportation plays an important role in international trades. However, the maritime freight volume of Taiwan had lower growth rate than that of the world in the past few years. As a result, the rankings of Taiwan ports dropped. Econometric models can be used to investigate the factors affect maritime freight volume of Taiwan, and to decompose the reasons of the freight volume reductions. This study reviewed and summarized the related literature, focusing on those studies using econometric models, on the topics of maritime freight volume forecasting, and port competition. Moreover, this study constructs a demand model, given the current data limitations.
Regarding maritime freight volume forecasting, the most common explanatory variables involve macroeconomics factors, such as, gross domestic product, industrial production index, and gross national product. Most domestic literature on port competition uses qualitative approaches due to the limitations of data accessibility and liability. In foreign literature, logit models are generally used for modeling port competition in order to heighten competitions among ports, regional ports especially.
While freight volume are probably determined by macroeconomics factors, industrial structures, or port competition. This study constructs the freight demand model of nested logit structure that jointly considers the demand and competitive factors. Finally, quantifying and explaining the impact of important factors on transshipmet of Kaohsiung port. From the estimation results the Kaohsiung port volume growth was mainly driven by demand factors from 2001 to 2007, but was mainly driven by competitive factors form 2007 to 2013.
This study stated further that the manufacturing output and household final consumption expenditure are the important demand factors. In addition, the development of China’s manufacturing industry have the great positive impact on the volume of container transshipment in Taiwan. Finally, the port handling costs are also the important factors causing traffic change.
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