Exploring the Impact of Air Pollutants and Weather on Outpatients of Respiratory Diseases in Taichung

• Main Authors: Liou, Guan-Cheng, 劉冠呈
• Other Authors: Tong, Lee-Ing
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2016
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/2qvz7c

碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 工業工程與管理系所 === 104 === Since the air pollution and weather can affect the risk of respiratory infection, the environmental pollution and the climate change issues are now concerned by worldwide. Past studies have pointed out that the differences in geographical, age groups and gender affected the extent of causing the risk of respiratory disease which are mainly determined by the changes in meteorological and air pollution. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to utilize Taichung city as a case study to construct various prediction models of respiratory disease outpatient according to gender and age variables. This study also explored the impacts of the excessive air pollution concentration and the dramatic weather changes on the risk of respiratory infections by simulated scenarios. The work of this study is divided into two stages. In the first stage, stepwise regression is utilized to find the key meteorological and air pollutants for male child, female child, young male, young female, elder male, and elder female on respiratory disease outpatient, respectively. In the second stage, GMDH is utilized to construct the prediction models of respiratory disease outpatient using the significant meteorological and air pollution factors obtained in the first stage for male child, female child, young male, young female, elder male, and elder female, respectively. Finally, the prediction models of respiratory disease outpatient are employed to conduct the stress test. The results indicated that the prediction models of respiratory disease outpatient for young male, young female, elder male, and elder female are quite accurate. The scenarios prediction of the stress test showed that the temperature, NMHC decline would increase the risk of respiratory disease for children mainly; temperature drops or PM10 increases would increase the risk of respiratory disease for young people mainly; temperature drops or ozone and PM10 increase would increase the risk of respiratory disease for elder people mainly. Besides, for children and young people, the risk of respiratory disease caused by meteorological and air pollution factor is higher for male than that for female.