The Impact of ECFA Early Harvest on Taiwan's Export to China:Analysis by Difference-in-Differences Model

• Main Authors: CHANG, WEI-LING, 張瑋玲
• Other Authors: CHEN, CHIEN-LIANG
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2016
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/25tcmf

碩士 === 國立暨南國際大學 === 管理學院經營管理碩士學位學程碩士在職專班 === 104 === After the WTO Doha Round negotiations run aground, in order to expand economic and trade interests, all countries began to sign Regional Trade Agreements with other nations. On June 29, 2010 Taiwan with the largest trading partner, "mainland China" signed Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (referred ECFA). After 5 years past, the effect of the early harvest list items on import and export trade is still no clear conclusion. This study uses difference-in-differences model to analyze Taiwan’s exports to China influenced by ECFA early harvest list. The results can be used as the basis for communication with the public, and so as the guideline for future industrial development policies. The results show ECFA is ineffective in total, the main reason is due to non-ECFA items is much larger than that of ECFA early harvest list items. Excluding the biased items from exports, the analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of ECFA policy on promoting Taiwan’s exports to China.