| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 經濟學系 === 104 === The goal of this study is to evaluate the impacts and dynamic effects on industrial output, working hours, foreign direct investment (FDI) in the following two scenarios: (i) negative impact of real FDI growth rate in Taiwan electronic industry occurred, and (ii) all industries in Taiwan were under the global negative impact. This research was developed with Taiwan industrial-level dataset by using the global vector autoregression (GVAR) model to capture the spillover effects.
The empirical results show that real output growth rate for each industry was positively correlated with the impact of real FDI growth rate in Taiwan electronic industry. It indicates that there is a cross-sectional dependence over various industries. Among all the industries, the output of the heavy industry and the financial and insurance industry were affected the most, and the outputs of light industry were the least affected. Furthermore, the employment growth rate tended to show a similar trend as well. However, in the aspect of productive input, the influence of real FDI growth rate is relatively less than the labor growth rate. The possible explanation for this phenomenon is that the variable costs of labor is relatively easier to reduce while the enterprise is under negative impacts.
In contrast, the effects of reducing electronic industry FDI and global negative impacts were different on industrial output in Taiwan. The influence on industrial output in Taiwan caused by global negative impact is relatively faster but with shorter response period. However, the employment growth rate and industrial output in Taiwan responded similar to the global negative impact. Global shock had higher association with most industry real FDI growth rate in Taiwan compared to the influence caused by Taiwan industry shock. One potential reason is that multinational enterprises reduce the investment and withdraw the funds to lower the risk during the global economic depression.
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