A Model of the return and risk of various new drug development projects using Research Backed Obligations

• Main Author: 陳朕疆
• Other Authors: 陳明吉
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2016
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/11788045172135166390

碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 財務管理研究所 === 104 === Biomedical innovation has become riskier and more difficult to finance with traditional sources such as private and public equity. Here we propose a financial structure called RBO (Research Backed Obligations) which is similar to Mortgage Backed Securities. In RBO structure, a $5 billion ‘Megafunds’ is financed by issuing Senior bonds, Junior bonds, and Equity. Senior bond and Junior bond tranches yield 5% and 8% annually, due within 4 and 6 years, respectively. Equity tranche does not pay any interest and obtain the residual asset after all debt obligations have been satisfied. ‘Megafunds’ will be invested on the 200 biomedical programs at various development stage to reduce the portfolio’s risk. We use the historical clinical trail data of 5820 new drug programs from 2003 to 2011. These drugs are classified into 59 groups by molecular type and disease area. Success rates of each development stage are imported into our simulation model, 5000 simulations for each drug group. The simulation result included the default rate of the Senior bonds and Junior bonds, loss of the bonds when the bonds default, and the expected value and standard deviation of the Equity return. We show that except for 3 drug groups, the default rate of Senior bond and Junior bond are less than 5 bp and 2.5% respectively for all the drugs. The expected return of Equity are between 8-16% of almost all the drug, although 4 drug groups show poorer performance. The standard deviations are between 14-15.5% for all drug groups. Consequently, almost all the drug groups have similar risks, but the expected return of the Equity tranche of these drug groups are quite different.