Random Sampling Verification On Project Scheduling

• Main Authors: JUNG,YI-SHIUE, 鍾易學
• Other Authors: SHEEN,QUEN-YAW
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2016
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/92322095567293844616

碩士 === 嶺東科技大學 === 資訊管理系碩士班 === 104 === Project management has gained an increasingly important position in modern organizations. The most widely used technique for managing project schedule since its origin in the 1950s, the well known as Program Evaluation and Review Technique/Critical Path Method (PERT/CPM) , has not been significantly modified and improved either in its application or its assumptions. After application using these methods, the statistical data shows that a lot of the project quality was low, the project was delivered late or the budget was exceeded. Since 1970, the Critical Chain (CC) method applies Theory of Constraints (TOC)-based thinking process developed by Dr. Goldratt to project management. Application of CC method in industries has been proven as successful. The purpose of this study is to verify the suitability and the constraints of the traditional PERT and CPM methods. This study introduce a random sampling method to simulate the inherent endurance uncertainty of activities. In this study, we proposed normal, right-skewed, and left-skewed distribution for modeling activities’ execution time. Our discourse compares systematically among the sampling simulation, PERT, and CPM to reveal the differences among these three approaches. We conclude that the proposed method in this study not only can completely verify the PERT and CPM approaches both are not fit for the merging effects calculation ,but also the merging effect is due to the expected value of the merging activity duration time.