An Application of Grey System Theory to Forecasting the Amount of Cram School in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Meng-Yu Chiang, 江孟諭
• Other Authors: Ying-Fang Huang
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2016
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/wc63kv

碩士 === 國立高雄應用科技大學 === 工業工程與管理系碩士班 === 104 === According to the statistics that Ministry of Education commissioned to Education Bureau, Kaohsiung City Government, the growth rate of cram school in Taiwan is up to 76%. It shows that parents want to let children have more advantages, so there are more and more cram schools. The decrease of birth rate cause a phenomenon that children is treasure in parents’ eyes and hope they could be successful people in the future, so parents would spend a lot of effort on their children, like let children learn many kinds of skills and go to cram school for entering a higher school, and under the 12-year Compulsory Education, going to cram schools not only for entering a higher school. 　　The number of cram school for the standard sequence, birth rate、the number of junior high school classes、junior high school attendance rate、7th to 9th graders、education in private consumption expenditure for the comparison sequence to get affecting factors a rank, the first three affecting factors and the quantity of cram school, result show to the factors that affecting the number of the number of 7th to 9th graders, education in private consumption expenditure, and the number of junior high school classes over the years, and then use Unbiased Grey GM method to make forecasts for the next 3 academic years. The study shows a predictive decrease in the number of cram school for the next 3 years, 7th to 9th graders and junior learner, education in private consumption expenditure, and the number of junior high school classes.