| Summary: | 碩士 === 義守大學 === 工業管理學系 === 104 === In this changeable new generation, predicting the sales volume in marketing management plays the essential part and it can be applied into kitchen cabinet industry. For more precise prediction, more and more theory and model has been carried out continuously. However, the traditional way of predicting model takes too much database for analyze and it required much more time, which end up with inaccurate result.
Grey prediction GM(1,1) model required only four database to build up a model which shorten a lot of time. This research used GM(1,1) model to predict the sales volume of kitchen cabinet accessories such as range hood, water heater, gas hob and dish dryer and analyze the different outcome. Based on the selected company, GM(1,1) model showed that the sales volume between 2010 to 2014 has reached the accuracy above 94%, which means GM(1,1) model is highly reliable. The model also predicted the sales volume will increase during the next five years between 2015 to 2019. Furthermore, compared to 2014, the sales volume of water heater will increase 1.09 times, range hood ,gas hob and dish dryer will increase 1.61 times, 1.76 times and 1.75 times respectively during 2019. The gas hob sale volume takes up to 30% of the total kitchen accessory, which is the best seller.
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