Intellectual Capital, Corporate Governance, Efficiency and Financial Crisis Warning System -The Empirical Study of Taiwanese Manufacturing Industries

• Main Authors: CHIAO-WEN LO, 羅巧汶
• Other Authors: TING-KUN LIU
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2016
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/89vzz6

碩士 === 朝陽科技大學 === 財務金融系 === 104 === Since Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy, a global financial center- Wall Street is collapse. Domino effect continued to spread, from the Americas to Asia, from the Financial Industry to the livelihood of traditional industries. Under the influence of globalization, even Taiwan can not stay out, not only financial institutions unable to help themselves, but also companies are facing reduced orders, profits decline etc. crisis. The global financial crisis of 2008 resulting in global stock markets and housing market fell, credit crunch, consumption plummeted, not only caused serious loss of business, but also investing public were also a hit. The causes of the financial crisis may be the company's brain drain, reducing the value of intellectual capital and instability make a negative impact on the value of the company, or the operational decision-making and resource allocation within the company is improper, resulting in deteriorating financial condition and resulting in poor production efficiency, also possible fraud within the company, for false accounting, malicious emptied the company's assets, or involving insider trading, deliberately concealed material information and false earnings and other human factors etc., led to the company operating and financial crisis. Therefore, under the impact of the global financial crisis after and broke out the financial, the establishment of crisis early warning mechanism, it is very important and urgent, if in the financial situation of the deterioration of the early will be able to detect it, and made available to managers and public investors, will help reduce the risk of crises. With the income increases, business services developed, Taiwan's service sector share of GDP reached 65 percent, the manufacturing sector also remained at about 30 percent. However, manufacturing sector more competitive compared with the service sector, contribution to GDP growth and economic growth is generally higher than the service sector, and manufacturing can help reduce the volatility of the economy, therefore, the United States and Europe, including Japan, Korea, have proposed to strengthen the manufacturing sector policy development, thereby strengthen the development of the manufacturing sector, by the German manufacturing sector has remained evident in the more than 20 percent. In recent years, most of the financial crisis early warning research scholar to adopt individual industries or in the whole industry as the research object, empirical research in the manufacturing sector is rare, in addition, while incorporating intellectual capital, corporate governance and efficiency issues are also rare. Therefore, in view of the importance of our manufacturing, this study constructs the balanced panel data of manufacturing industry companies in Taiwan from 2001 to 2015, and we follow former literatures to use 1:1, 1:2 and 1:3 patterns on the financial distress and non-financial distress company (see Lee and Teng, 2009, Tsai et al., 2009, and Chen et al., 2010). Then we construct Logistic model for financial crisis precaution model, besides the financial variables of the Z-score model, in addition, we adopt the intellectual capital, corporate governance and efficiency variables, considerations into intellectual capital, corporate governance and efficiency variables and are not included, collocation early warning model whereby different categories, whichever has the better predictive power. The results show the average forecast rate of all variables is 80.5%. Whether incorporated into individual intellectual capital, corporate governance and efficiency of variable, the average forecast rate has improved. Overall, with the intellectual capital, corporate governance and efficiency have raised the average accuracy rate of manufacturing companies warning model has.