The threshold effect of exchange rate on the economic growth - tourism receipts causality

• Main Authors: Pin-Ju Tang, 湯頻如
• Other Authors: Po-Chin Wu
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2016
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/13836717060617501090

碩士 === 中原大學 === 國際經營與貿易研究所 === 104 === Abstract In this study, human development index list is divided into very high human development, high human development, medium human development and low human development different levels of four types. We select GDP per capital、international tourism receipts、population、official exchange rate in the 53 countries of of human development index. Sample period from 1995 to 2013, a total of 19 years of data, a panel data form, the use of González et al. Aspect (2005) proposed a Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model, PSTR, by converted by the exchange rate as a variable, find the threshold exchange rate, and to explore at different exchange rates, the impact of economic growth and international tourism receipts each country situation. According to empirical results obtained the following conclusions: First, the existence of GDP and international tourism receipts bidirectional causality, while GDP nonlinear relationship between international tourism receipts, economic growth can really drive the international tourism receipts. Second, the GDP and international tourism receipts causal relationship is nonlinear, with the exchange rate and changes in time and have different effects, the use of the exchange rate policy of the government, so that the exchange rate appreciation, the growth of GDP will increase international tourism receipts; However, if the long-term exchange rate fluctuations so much, but it would weaken GDP growth driven by international tourism receipts strength.