| Summary: | 碩士 === 淡江大學 === 財務金融學系碩士班 === 103 === Because of China’s economy growth in the past ten years, its market demand is getting bigger and bigger. The huge market demand in China attracts many international companies to expend their business and get a lot of benefits from those transactions with China. As one of the neighbor of China, Taiwan does a lot of transactions with it and a lot of companies in different industry also get benefits from those transactions, especially for the transition industry. According to the above description, China’s business cycle is definitely an important influence factor of transition industry company’s performance and its stock price. So this study focuses on how China’s business cycle and others economics factors affect Taiwan transition industry company’s stock price. By using the nonlinear method of smooth transition regression model and use China’s GDP increasing rates to be the threshold variable, this study tries to investigate the nonlinear influence of China’s GDP increasing rate, Brent oil price, BDI index, RMB exchange rate and Total transaction amount on Evergreen Marine corporation, EVA Air, Taiwan Navigation corporation and China Airline’s stock prices. The empirical result shows that the RMB exchange rate has significant positive or negative impact on these four companies no matter in which threshold level, others economic indicators’ influence on these four companies’ stock price are difference from the market value of these four companies. The result shows that in the airline industry, except for RMB exchange rate, the others four economic factors have the significant impact on the company which has bigger market value like China Airline and to the company which has relatively small market value like EVA Air, there are just three economic factors: Brent oil price, RMB exchange rate and Total transaction amount which have significant impact on it. This study got the same result in the maritime industry, there are three economic factors: RMB exchange rate, China’s GDP increasing rate, BDI index have significant impact on Evergreen Marine corporation’s stock price and only two economic factors have significant impact on Taiwan Navigation corporation’s stock price, RMB exchange rate and China’s GDP increasing rate.
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