The Relationship between Google Trends and Taiwan’s Tourism Industry Stock Index

• Main Authors: Shih-Han Yu, 游詩涵
• Other Authors: Nai-Fong Kuo
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2015
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/95389651233599744555

碩士 === 世新大學 === 財務金融學研究所(含碩專班) === 103 === 　　Predicting trends with Google search queries, in recent years, is the concern of many scholars. This paper aims to analyze how Google Trends data affect Taiwan’s tourism industry stock index, and using tour stocks’ search volume as research variables. VAR model, Granger causality test, impulse response analysis and forecast error variance decomposition are applied in this study for exploring the relationship between variables. 　　According to experimental results, VAR model found only a few tour stocks’ search volume have impact on tourism industry stock index; by Granger causality test, part of tour stocks’ search volume are leading the changes in tourism industry stock index; taken as a whole, tour stocks’ search volume have some explanatory power to tourism industry stock index.