Cancer incidence rate prediction model building

• Main Authors: Bo-Chi Tsai, 蔡伯其
• Other Authors: Chih-Hua Chiao
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2015
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/91712466411966870562

碩士 === 東吳大學 === 財務工程與精算數學系 === 103 === This study explores the trends of cancer incidence rates in Taiwan. According to the 2012 Annual Cancer Registry Report published by the Health Promotion Administration, Ministry of Health and Welfare, 96,694 new cancer cases were diagnosed in 2012, which are 4,012 higher than the number of new cases reported in 2011. In other words, a new case was diagnosed at an average of every 5.44 minutes in 2012, which is 0.23 minutes faster than that for 2011. This upward trend is prototypically demonstrative of the noticeably increased prevalence of cancer by the Taiwan Society of Cancer Registry during the last 10 years. There are several potential explanations for these observed increases in new cancer rates; advances in diagnostic medicine, environmental pollution, and increased average life expectancy are potential contributory factors. While age-specific cancer incidence rate patterns are similar to age-specific mortality rates, they do not similar over time. Therefore, our research team applied a method introduction by Pitacco et al.(2009) for cancer incidence prediction and satisfactorily employed the Heligman Pollard law in terms of both goodness-of-fit and forecasting performances. Finally, we discussion the reasonable economic capital should be hold by life insurance to response the change of cancer incidence rate.