Sequential risk decision process: Reference Point Formation and Adaptation in Balloon Analogue Risk Task

• Main Authors: Pei-Hsun Hsieh, 謝沛勳
• Other Authors: 黃貞穎
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2015
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/19104646221151100287

碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 經濟學研究所 === 103 === The main idea of this article is to find formation and adaptation of reference point in sequential risk decision process by the psychological experimental method, the Balloon Analogue Risk Task(BART). According to Koszegi and Rabin(2006), reference point is a person''s lagged expectation, formed after situation arose a period. We consider that when situation changed, DM''s reference point will change his/her expectation in old situation to the expectation in new situation gradually. In our experiment, a subject get a balloon with zero value in the beginning, which must be pumped, cashed, or done nothing at every moments. The balloon is enlarged when it gets pumped by the subject, and the value of it is proportional to its size. There is a probability that the balloon will explode by getting pumped. If the subject cashes the balloon before explosion, he/she can get the value of balloon. We have three groups in our experiment, (i)control group(one balloon), (ii)intermediate goal group, (iii)two balloons group. We want to find that when we set an intermediate goal in a trial, subjects tend to cash the balloon earlier to avoid risk explosion. On the other hand, we want to find that when subjects loss value (by balloon explosion) in two balloons group, subjects tend to cash balloon later to get more reward.