Determinants of the Private Consumption in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Tai-Ying Lin, 林玳瑩
• Other Authors: 謝德宗
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2014
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/61459470501133191661

碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 經濟學研究所 === 103 === Private consumption expenditure make up of 60% of Taiwan’s GDP. It’s necessary to increase the private consumption expenditure in order to increase the growth in GDP, thus the studies on how to stimulate private consumption expenditure have been the focus of the policy makers in the past. We will consider the macroeconomics variable such as the lending rate of five largest banks, disposable income and Gini coefficient. In addition, we’ll also consider population age structure, dependency ratio variables. Finally we’ll examine the relationship of Taiwan weighted stock index and 95 unleaded gasoline prices with the private consumption expenditure. We will first run the Granger causality test between the private consumption expenditure with other variables, and run unit root test on all the variables, then regress independent variables against the dependent variable, and conduct a correlation analysis. Empirical study shows that there’s bilateral causality between the disposable income and the private consumption expenditure. There’s unidirectional causality between the lending rate of the five largest banks with private consumption expenditure, and Taiwan weighted stock index with private consumption expenditure. There is no causal relationship between private consumption expenditure with Gini coefficient, dependency ratio and 95 unleaded gasoline prices. Except lending rate and Taiwan weighted stock index have no autocorrelation in the error terms, other variables once adjusted for AR(1), D-W statistics are all in the acceptable range. The empirical results shows that Gini coefficient is statistical significant negatively related with private consumption expenditure. The population aged between 40-49 years old is statistical significant positive related with private consumption expenditure, whereas population aged between 50-59 years old is statistical significant negative related with private consumption expenditure. The 95 unleaded gasoline price is statistical significant negative related with private consumption expenditure. Finally dependency ratio, Taiwan weighted stock index are not statistically significant related with private consumption expenditure.