| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 經濟學研究所 === 103 === Though Granger is well recognized as a theoretical founding father of forecast combination, two evidences go against the general attribution of his contribution. First, the forecast combination formula and the derivation of its weights are exact the same as Markowitz (1952). Second, before Granger and Ramanathan (1984), Crane and Crotty (1967) had already combined forecasts through multiple regression. Furthermore, forecasts combination was heavily criticized before 1974, but was widely accepted after that. All these factors indicates the rising importance of forecast combination is due to reasons other than its innovative contribution. Studies shows the development of computer technology has played a role.
Other than the reposition of Granger’s status, after 1969, various combination practices are developed as well, such as ensemble forecast in meteorology, earthquake forecast and seismic analysis in seismology, and loop analysis in ecology. Researchers who interest in the idea of combination may consult this thesis to have an understanding of the various findings.
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