| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 經濟學系 === 103 === The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) are two of the most significant free trade agreements (FTAs) involving major Asian countries in the resent years. The two FTAs serve as the vital engine for Taiwan to foster its economy growths and enhance the export competiveness. The main purpose of this thesis is to provide a quantitative analysis for a comparison between Taiwan’s participating in the TPP and the RCEP. To make accurate estimations, we not only consider the reduction in the tariff barriers of tangible goods, but also reduce the trade barriers of service industry in the TPP given its high quality of comprehensive market access. In addition, in view of the fact that international trade provides a transmission channel of technology spillovers which may stimulate further economic growth, this thesis further account for the extra gains resulting from technology spillover effects.
The quantitative impacts of the two FTAs on Taiwan’s economy are analyzed using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and its version 8.1 database. Our numerical results show that, in the presence of technology spillover effects, Taiwan can have an economic gain in terms of a real GDP growth by 1.23% when participating the TPP while only eliminating the tariff barriers of goods (which might be underestimated), 1.80% participating the TPP while reducing the tariff barriers of goods and service, and 1.67% participating the RCEP. In addition, with technology spillover, there could be in a gain up to 2.65% participating the RCEP, and joining the TPP causes higher gains—up to 2.81% of real GDP—for Taiwan.
Excluding technology spillover effects, the simulation results suggest that we should choose the TPP. And if we further consider the technology spillover effects, participating the TPP is still better than joining the RCEP. Based on our results, the Primary sector would be injured. To reduce this damage, we should set supporting measures. For example, expanding the subsidies to those who is injured by the liberalization, and increasing the value-added of this sector. For the manufacturing sectors, the results suggest that they would gain from the liberalization. So, the government should keep strengthening human capital resources, encouraging research and development departments, and optimizing the industrial structure. Service sectors would also experience a growth from participating the TPP, but in reality, there are many restrictions from the legal aspects. In response to this market liberalization, we should reform the related laws as soon as possible, so that we could keep up with the world.
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