System Simulation of Urbanization and Vulnerability to Flooding: A Case Study of Taipei Metropolitan Region

• Main Authors: Huang, Min-Han, 黃愍涵
• Other Authors: Huang, Shu-Li
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2015
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/7d9vsc

碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 都市計劃研究所 === 103 === Climate change result in extreme weather, such as heavy precipitation and typhoon, will bring significant impact on the city, the concept of vulnerability was thus proposed. With the increase of human activities, urban development is more and more dense or spread. Urbanization was not only related to population growth and economic growth, but also involved in land-use changes. Urban vulnerability has characteristics of spatial distribution, and change with time. But how urban vulnerability affected by urbanization, causes and impact of time has not been clearly explain. The purpose of this paper was to find out the relationship between urbanization and vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity). This thesis developed system simulation model by combined land use change model and vulnerability assessment with system ecology and ecological energetic analysis, and named as urban vulnerability assessment of spatial system simulation model. The system simulation model created by ESRI ArcGIS model builder, and simulated composition of vulnerability from 1971 to 2031. During 1971 to 2031, the simulation result indicated that exposure was affected by maximum rainfall of day and topography, sensitivity affected by stock of urban area land use increased. Vulnerability is a function of potential impact and adaptive capacity, when the potential impact is high or adaptive capacity is low, then vulnerability will has great value. To sum up, the high development area has higher potential impact, thereby affecting vulnerability rise. This study developed urban vulnerability assessment of spatial system simulation mode, the vulnerability assessment was one way evaluated from urbanization to vulnerability, but urbanization and vulnerability relationship was interaction. Therefore, the direction for further research toward vulnerability affect and feedback to urban system.