| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立屏東科技大學 === 水土保持系所 === 103 === In recent years, climate change leads to global warming worsening, While the global temperature gradually increased variability caused by climate system also affect the hydrological cycle and extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods, etc. Another difference between wet season, dry season rainfall is also more obvious, Rainfall changes indirect effects of increased or decreased in runoff, The generating capacity of hydroelectric power plants but also because of runoff be greatly affected, Therefore, this study using AR5 climate change scenarios with 12 kinds of GCM.
Using TAIWAP program to simulate rainfall changes in the future, and with the current watershed runoff coefficients plants get flows, Then with the potential of generating capacity flows equation. To analyze climate change, changing the amount of future changes in hydroelectric reservoirs.
Study found that the impact of the whole climate change. Taiwan's generating capacity in the short term 66% chance of potential hydropower capacity will be increased. Hydropower potential maximum increase of 1505.02 million degrees on the contrary hydroelectric potential to reduce the amount of maximum 627.68 million degrees; In the medium term, there are 75% increase potential hydropower capacity, Hydropower potential increase maximum 2375.907 million degrees, maximum reduction of 525.203 million degrees; Long-term power generation is an increasing trend as much as 83 percent. In the long-term potential hydropower capacity increased maximum 3270.84 million degrees, while maximum hydropower potential reduction 405.3 million degrees.
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