| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 國際永續發展碩士在職專班 === 103 === Wind power has experienced rapid global growth with a 60% increase from 2010 (198 GW of installed capacity) to 2013 (318 GW of installed capacity), and approximately 20% increase per year in average. There has been a tendency to increase installed capacity, height, and rotor diameter. However, small scale wind energy systems, which are used on residential, agricultural, commercial, government and industrial sites to generate their own clean and cost-effective electricity, are also growing in international markets. These small turbines have an installed capacity of up to 50 kW, rotor diameters between 3 m and 10 m, and are between 3 m to 20 m high.
This thesis aims to determine the feasibility of a SSWE project in the residential area of Vizcaya in Santa Catarina Pinula, Guatemala. To do so wind speeds and wind direction characteristics were analyzed through Excel and Windographer software to determine the power density of the area. Afterwards, a turbine model was selected and the power output was analyzed using the specifications of that turbine. At the same time, the targeted neighborhood‟s attitude towards the small wind project was evaluated to determine their acceptance and their willingness to pay (WTP). A financial analysis was made calculating a Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), which is an assessment of the average total cost of a power asset to be built and operated over its lifetime divided by the total power output over that same lifetime. The LCOE was calculated under different scenarios and then compared to the neighbors‟ WTP to determine under which conditions the project would be feasible. Finally, an emissions mitigation analysis was carried out to determine the tons of CO2 that would be mitigated through this wind power project.
The chosen wind turbine, a STEP V2, which is manufactured by STEP Energysystems, in Austria, has an average net power output of 2.41 kW at 20 m with monthly averages ranging between 0.4 kW (June) and 6.3 kW (February). Neighbors currently buy electricity at US$0.19/kWh, and even though their knowledge on wind power and about the project itself is low, their WTP for energy from a wind project without deep information about it is surprisingly about US$0.23/kWh. Through a financial and sensitivity analysis, it was determined that a group of turbines is needed not only to supply the demand but to meet their WTP. Under the most optimistic scenario, at least fifteen wind turbines are needed, and under the most conservative scenario it wouldn‟t be possible to meet the neighborhood‟s current WTP making the project not feasible. Furthermore, it was determined that through this case study there is an annual net GHG (greenhouse gas) emission mitigation of 92.8 tons of CO2 per year.
This small wind project proved to be feasible under one scenario without considering grants or policies, and without considering carbon grants or any other environmental benefit that can be transformed into economic benefits. Therefore, the project is more attractive if policies were placed to economically benefit wind projects, if grants could be obtained for the development of the project, and if the project‟s mitigated emissions were to economically be taken into account.
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